Chelsea and the transfer window

Let’s head back up the Fulham Road to Stamford Bridge.  When I last wrote about Chelsea, shortly before the summer transfer window closed, I said that they were on course for a “huge” cash outflow.  So how did things pan out?

1.   The net summer outlay was indeed huge.  It looks to have been around £65m, with only one significant player sale (Meireles, for £8m) to defray the cost of Hazard, Oscar, Moses and Azpilicueta.  Then again…

2.   …this kind of expenditure isn't unusual for Chelsea.  It was nearly as much last season (Mata, Lukaku and Meireles accounting for the majority of it) and substantially more in 2010-11, the second of Ancelotti's two seasons at the helm (Torres and Luiz were the big buys that year).  Still, at this rate…

3.  …Chelsea will need about £60m of extra cash this season, I reckon.  The main variable is progress in the Champions League, and I’m assuming exit in the quarter-finals.  But even if they win the thing again, net cash outlay for the season will still be in the region of £30m.  And…

4.  …that’s probably okay with Abramovich.  I've argued in the past that he is content to subsidise the club to the tune of about £50m a year.  If so, then he'd probably rather like to see progress to the Champions League semi-finals.  Alternatively…

5.   …Di Matteo could raise some cash in the winter transfer window.  Malouda – banished from the first-team squad to train with the youngsters – is one possible source of that.  But since his contract expires next summer anyway, he may be content to hang on and move as a free agent.  So instead…

6.   …Sturridge could be offloaded.  His contract reportedly expires next summer too – at which point he’ll still be young (23), and with a very respectable Premier League goalscoring record to boot.   There would be plenty of clubs willing to pay £10m for him, which would be enough to keep Chelsea’s cash burn for the season down to around £50m.  

7.   The other main options for bringing in some cash would be Mikel and Ramires, both of whom will be entering the last 18 months of their contracts in January, and both of whom are comfortably the right side of 30.  But they seem to be very much part of Di Matteo's squad at the moment.

Fulham and the transfer window

The summer transfer window has now closed.  Was it a good one for Fulham?  Here are eight conclusions.

1.      There has been a marked reduction in squad size.  Eleven players have gone (Dembele, Dempsey, Etuhu, Gecov, Gryhgera, Halliche, Johnson, Murphy, Pogrebnyak, Riise BH, and Sa) and only six have come in (Berbatov, Dejagah, Petric, Richardson, Riether and Rodallega).  That’s why…

2.     …Berbatov is affordable.  His transfer fee was relatively cheap, but his wages aren’t.  He’s on a reported £100k a week, whereas I reckon that the average at Fulham is only about £40k.  But with five fewer players in the squad, his arrival probably won’t mean an increase in the overall wage bill.  And…

3.     …there was a healthy overall cash surplus.  It looks to have been around £13m, with the sale of Dembele and Dempsey leaving plenty left over even after the acquisition of Berbatov, Dejagah and Richardson.  That sounds like a great start to the year, in financial terms.  But on the other hand…

4.     …the big financial change this season is the absence of Europa League income.  Last year, there would have been £5-10m of that.  But having banked a £13m surplus in the transfer window just ended, Fulham can expect to break even in cash terms this season – even if the Premier League campaign goes badly.  In fact…

5.    …they could probably finish bottom of the league and still break even.  In contrast, a ninth-place finish – as currently predicted by the spread-betting markets – would mean a surplus of around £10m.  So…

6.      …Jol’s budget in the January transfer window will depend heavily on league form.  If a top-half finish is on the cards, then I imagine he’ll be allowed to spend away that £10m.  If not, then his spending power will be reduced accordingly.  Of course, he may also want to make some disposals in January, especially since…

7.     …nearly half the squad is out of contract next summer.  But of the players in question, probably only Senderos has resale value in January.  He’ll be 28 next year, whereas the others will all be 30 or over.  Ditto for those whose deals expire in summer 2014 (e.g. Berbatov, Riise, Sidwell).  But at that point, a number of players will be sub-30 and still have a year left on their contracts – namely Dejagah, Frei, Kacaniklic, Kasami, Richardson, Rodallega, Ruiz and  Stockdale.  Therefore…

8.     …it looks like summer 2014 will be the next chance to bring in some significant cash from the transfer market.  So whilst it looks to me as though Jol will have £10m at his disposal in January, he might actually prefer to keep it up his sleeve until next summer.