Fulham and the transfer window

The summer transfer window has now closed.  Was it a good one for Fulham?  Here are eight conclusions.

1.      There has been a marked reduction in squad size.  Eleven players have gone (Dembele, Dempsey, Etuhu, Gecov, Gryhgera, Halliche, Johnson, Murphy, Pogrebnyak, Riise BH, and Sa) and only six have come in (Berbatov, Dejagah, Petric, Richardson, Riether and Rodallega).  That’s why…

2.     …Berbatov is affordable.  His transfer fee was relatively cheap, but his wages aren’t.  He’s on a reported £100k a week, whereas I reckon that the average at Fulham is only about £40k.  But with five fewer players in the squad, his arrival probably won’t mean an increase in the overall wage bill.  And…

3.     …there was a healthy overall cash surplus.  It looks to have been around £13m, with the sale of Dembele and Dempsey leaving plenty left over even after the acquisition of Berbatov, Dejagah and Richardson.  That sounds like a great start to the year, in financial terms.  But on the other hand…

4.     …the big financial change this season is the absence of Europa League income.  Last year, there would have been £5-10m of that.  But having banked a £13m surplus in the transfer window just ended, Fulham can expect to break even in cash terms this season – even if the Premier League campaign goes badly.  In fact…

5.    …they could probably finish bottom of the league and still break even.  In contrast, a ninth-place finish – as currently predicted by the spread-betting markets – would mean a surplus of around £10m.  So…

6.      …Jol’s budget in the January transfer window will depend heavily on league form.  If a top-half finish is on the cards, then I imagine he’ll be allowed to spend away that £10m.  If not, then his spending power will be reduced accordingly.  Of course, he may also want to make some disposals in January, especially since…

7.     …nearly half the squad is out of contract next summer.  But of the players in question, probably only Senderos has resale value in January.  He’ll be 28 next year, whereas the others will all be 30 or over.  Ditto for those whose deals expire in summer 2014 (e.g. Berbatov, Riise, Sidwell).  But at that point, a number of players will be sub-30 and still have a year left on their contracts – namely Dejagah, Frei, Kacaniklic, Kasami, Richardson, Rodallega, Ruiz and  Stockdale.  Therefore…

8.     …it looks like summer 2014 will be the next chance to bring in some significant cash from the transfer market.  So whilst it looks to me as though Jol will have £10m at his disposal in January, he might actually prefer to keep it up his sleeve until next summer.